The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin
I had followed the recently concluded POTUS election with the disdain of a yogi in the Himalayas for the rise and fall of Dow Jones. Why have an unhealthy interest in the internal affairs of another country? Like many Indians, though, I might have secretly hoped for Kamala’s win, to gloat over an Indian (or the daughter of a Daughter of India) President of Amrika. Alas, US is not yet ready for Lakshmi and Lotus!
Not anymore. Now, I’m totally pro-Trump, after I read about the rise and rise of Bitcoin (BTC) which surged to $93,400 on 15 Nov. 24, and is predicted to breach $ 1,00,000 owing to the crypto-friendly regulatory stance of President-elect Trump. From $ 36000 in 2023, BTC has surged 159% whereas India’s benchmark Nifty 50 has gone up by a mere 11.11% during this period.
Recalling that I had invested into Crypto-Currency (CC) sometime back, I opened the relevant App and checked my Portfolio. Wow, Bitcoin (BTC) has yielded a return much higher than my investment in mutual funds or stocks! Vis-à-vis the negative return from bank FDs (Interest earned minus 30% income tax minus 5% inflation per year), BTC return is alluring enough to delight even a modern-day Shylock.
When had I invested in CC and why? Well, a dear colleague with a doctorate in Economics from a reputed American University had delivered a Talk highlighting the global refusal by National Banks, barring one or two countries, to accept CC as legal tender, and had dissuaded us from the daredevilry of investing in CC. The same day, I put some of my pension money in CC, helplessly succumbing to the lure of the forbidden apple!
In a few months, I lost most of my investment, licked my wounds, reported the fate of my ill-advised investment to the economist friend (I had fore-warned you, he said.), and stopped daily monitoring of CC prices. No big deal; I’ve lost bigger amounts by subscribing to the much-hyped IPOs of Coal India (a Navratna PSU), PayTM (a mega Private sector IPO), and a few others.
If you’re interested in the morality story of how NOT to make stupid investments and lose money like this blogger, you may like to read his previous blog: PDASH Touch:
https://pkdash-author.blogspot.com/2022/05/pdash-touch.html
When I bought on 04/05/2022, Bitcoin price was USD 39,698.37 (INR 30,17,148).
BTC price on 15/11/2024: USD 93400 (INR 77,46,437) – an increase of 235.27%.
That would give you an idea of the meteoric rise of Bitcoin.
Currently, investors are buying furiously, but I’m unable to decide. Trading in CC is legal in India, even though RBI has not made it legal tender in the country. RBI Governor has warned investors against trading in crypto, and the Finance Minister has slapped a 30% tax on CC earnings; but the Indian investors are totally unfazed.
With 100 million Indians trading in CC, India is World No.1. Who are these investors? As per a brokerage house, the Indian investors are young (mostly under 35), highly-educated (with a B.Tech and/or MBA), and with a high risk appetite (own a Startup, or work in one). Having none of those eminent qualifications, I’m a strange bird, maybe a scarecrow among those savvy investors!
In terms of CC ownership value UAE is No.1, Vietnam No. 2, and India is not among the Top 10 countries. Why, you might wonder? Because, the 31 registered CC Exchanges in India facilitate Indian investors to begin investing in CC with as little as INR 100!
Btw, how many CCs are there? About 10000, as per Statista (a credible source), and more than 25000 according to AI.
What if I sell my BTC holding? I made a quick calculation.
My BTC holding: 0.00049282. You read that right. Since I had no money to buy a whole BTC, I had bought a fraction.
Investment Amount: 1300 INR
Current Value: 3640 INR
Total Profit: 2340 INR
Govt Tax @ 30%: 702 INR
Total Earning: 2340-702=1638
Income Tax @ 30%: 491.4
Net Income: 1638-491.4=1146.6
Since my investment in 2022, rupee has lost purchasing power owing to the average rate of 5% inflation per year; yet if I sell today, my net earning will buy me a few kilos of not-forbidden delicious apple!
To BUY or SELL, that’s the question! Should I BUY now, as a CC Exchange urges me to do with 2-Full Front-page Ads featuring a sports celebrity in Economic Times? Or, should I bequeath my CC holdings including Bitcoin to my grandchildren who I expect would arrive in due course and upon coming off age might be CC billionaires?
Do you know why May 22 is celebrated each year by the CC community as Bitcoin Pizza Day? In 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz, a programmer and early Bitcoin enthusiast, made history by purchasing two Papa John’s pizzas for 10,000 Bitcoins, the-then value of which was USD 41 (Source: The Economic Times, May 22, 2024); and the present value is 7724 crores!
In the short-run, I’m eagerly waiting for 20 Jan 2025 when TRUMP would be sworn in and BTC would soar past $ 100,000!
PostScript
A few readers have asked: Should I invest in CC? How to do that?
Here is a disclaimer. In my blog, I've NOT recommended CC investment for my readers. It's a highly risky investment with wild ups and downs. I've merely dipped a toe to test the waters. Anyway, if you're young, you won't have asked those questions; and if you asked, you're not very young, I guess. So, stay safe and heed the dire warnings of RBI Governor Shaktikant Das (no relative of this blogger!).
Ashok K. Gupta, my friend commented: Makes a very interesting read as I have no clue about this animal.
My reply: Yes, humans have come out of the jungle to enter the digital jungle!
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'Bitcoin is an innovative payment network and a new kind of money.' (https://bitcoin.org/en/)
